Serious threat to jobs in US logistics as tariffs cause economic 'stagflation'
Employment in the US logistics sector changed course to cuts last month, and predictions envisage massive layoffs soon.
Meanwhile, professionals at the top are in high demand, as companies look for leaders with expanded skill sets to navigate the ongoing volatility.
UPS made headlines last month with its plans to cut 40,000 jobs – about 4% of its workforce. This prompted immediate pledges of resistance from the Teamsters union and signalled a drastic deterioration in labour relations at the integrator.
But UPS is no outlier; other logistics firms have announced job cuts – albeit of a lesser magnitude, but that could well change, according to predictions from Apollo Global Management, which anticipates a recession that will ravage employment in transport and retail.
The slump in imports triggered by the Trump administration’s tariff moves, especially on imports from China, is going to cause a sharp slowdown in domestic freight activity, Apollo predicted, noting that imports make up around 20% of US trucking volumes. Its analysts expect the slowdown to unfold by mid-May, followed by hefty layoffs.
By one estimate, the domestic freight market could contract by as much as 5%, potentially causing similar bloodletting in employment that could translate into more than 400,000 jobs disappearing.
Apollo warned that the economy could fall into ‘stagflation’, a protracted period of economic woe. And more jobs could disappear if companies buckle under. S&P Global Ratings recently noted that risk of corporate defaults have increased in the wake of the tariff offensive.
“The longer tariff uncertainty lasts – or if it worsens – the greater the likelihood that speculative-grade corporate default rates increase. Our pessimistic cases are 6% for the US and 6.25% for Europe, respectively,” the ratings agency warned.
Hiring was still up in March (although recent numbers have adjusted earlier reports downward). However, those gains were largely related to a surge in front-loading activity, momentum which slowed sharply in April. After 7,000 jobs had been added in transport in March, last month saw an increase of 1,400 jobs – less than a tenth of a percent, according to Bureau of Labor statistics. Employment in trucking was down 3.2% from a year earlier. The rail industry added 100 jobs in April.
Meanwhile, the view from the top is strikingly different. At executive level, the logistics industry shows no signs of impact from the economic headwinds. The 2025 Logistics Salary Survey. produced by Peerless Research for Logistics Management. shows a picture of executives satisfied with their situation, notwithstanding an increase in their responsibilities.
The authors of the study, which was based on input from over 200 qualified respondents, wrote that demand for qualified professionals was outpacing supply as companies try to engineer more resilient and agile supply chains. This keeps leaders in the position of high esteem attained in the volatility since the pandemic. Plus, it ensures fairly attractive remuneration.
If anything, their importance has grown as their range of responsibilities has expanded. Two-thirds of the respondents (67%) reported an increase in the number of job functions they perform over the past two years. And this does not appear to have weighed on their job satisfaction, as 93% said they were satisfied with their careers.
At the top end of the pay scale, 24% of the respondents earned more than $150,000 a year, whereas 8% received less than $50,000. People at VP or general manager rank topped the scale, with an average salary of $208,300.
After years of increases, the average salary actually slipped, from $128,300 last year to $120,600, but this can be attributed to demographics, as top earners – typically aged between 55 and 64 – retired. Only 10% of the respondents reported a decrease in their pay in the past 12 months.
And the wage gap between male and female employees appears to be narrowing. The average annual salary for men sank from $145,200 in 2024 to $133,400, while for female managers it climbed from $101,700 last year to $120,500.
However, women may earn significantly less than their male counterparts the longer they stay in the industry, commented Abe Eshkenazi, CEO of the Association for Supply Chain Management.
But for employees down the hierarchy facing the possible loss of their jobs, the improvements for senior executives are cold comfort.
