US presidential hopeful Donald Trump’s promise to impose a 20% tariff on all imports entering the country, as well as 60%-100% imports levied on Chinese goods, could throw the transpacific trade into a renewed rate spike.

Ocean freight rate intelligence platform Xeneta said that the last time Mr Trump occupied the White House and first imposed tariffs on Chinese imports in 2018, the result was a 70%-plus increase in transpacific freight rates, as US importers and their Chinese suppliers desperately tried to front-load imports to beat the tariff deadline.

Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said: “Raising barriers to trade is almost always a negative move. We saw the cost of shipping goods by ocean spike dramatically when Trump introduced tariffs back in 2018 and his latest proposals will simply be a case of history repeating.”

According to Xeneta data, average spot freight rates from China to the US west coast increased from $1,503 per 40ft on 1 January 2018 to $2,604 on 1 November 2018.

Although Mr Trump claimed in the debate with Democrat nominee Kamala Harris that the proposed tariffs would not result in increased prices for consumers, industry observers largely disagreed.

In a summer analysis, the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated the combined effect of the proposed tariffs would cost a middle-income household at least $1,700 in increased expenses each year, although this is number does not take into account the effect of potentially higher freight rates.

Freightos lead analyst Judah Levine said: “If Trump is re-elected and announces new tariffs, we could see a similar spike in rates. In 2018, then-president Trump’s tariff announcements led to a doubling of freight rates as shippers rushed to move goods ahead of increased costs.

“As in 2024, tariff announcements have historically altered the timing of shipments,” he added.

Mr Sand further explained that the cost of higher freight rates would likely be borne by US consumers: “When ocean container shipping markets increase, that cost gets passed down the line and ultimately it is the end-consumer who pays the price.

“It could be through increased cost of goods on the shelves or a limited choice in the products available.”

He pointed to the Red Sea crisis as evidence of the effect supply chain disruptions can have on the cost of goods.

Since the onset of the Houthi attacks on shipping, spot rates on the Far East-US east coast trade increased 303% between 1 December 2023 and 1 July 2024, and increased by 389% in the same period on Far East-US west coast shipments.

“Shippers react to supply chain threats by rushing to import as many goods as possible as quickly as they can. Front-loading of imports contributed to the massive increases in freight rates following the outbreak of conflict in the Red Sea and we will see the same behaviour from shippers ahead of any new tariffs coming into force,” added Mr Sand.

“Shippers and freight forwarders dislike uncertainty because it reduces their ability to manage supply chain risk.

“This is why people who work or operate within the maritime industry embrace global trade and do not want to see tariffs or other barriers introduced,” he added.

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Container lines seem to be shelving plans to implement fresh rate increases on the India-US tradelane that has yielded them stronger-than-expected returns over the past two months.

Indeed, CMA CGM has delayed for the third time a peak season surcharge (PSS) it originally planned to implement in August until 1 October.

The French line has also reduced the PSS from the previously advertised $1,500 per container to $1,000, on shipments from the Indian subcontinent, Middle East, Red Sea and Egypt to the US east and Gulf coasts.

Similarly, Hapag-Lloyd has a $1,000 per container general rate increase (GRI) attempt lined-up for 1 October.

“This GRI/GRA adjustment is applicable to all containers gated and is valid until further notice,” the German carrier said in a customer advisory.

According to market sources, rates from India to North America have dropped precipitously since the second half of August, after soaring to around $10,000 per 40ft container in July.

And sources expect rates to continue declining through this month, as demand linked to the traditional peak season tapers off.

A slew of blanked sailings on West India-USEC connections, triggered by network changes, had also helped carriers push rates substantially higher, forwarders noted.

Meanwhile, weekly capacity out of Nhava Sheva and Mundra for North America has strengthened, with CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd opening independent loops, after dismantling their decades-long joint Indamex services in response to network changes unfolding from the Gemini alliance.

But shipper sources expect some cargo rollovers because of ongoing vessel schedule disruption and container backlog concerns at Mundra, following recent flooding that forced a suspension of port operations for a few days.

Indian container volumes have gathered strong pace in the fiscal year 2024-25 that began in April. According to the latest data, the country’s containerised trade in August surged 16% month on month, to 2.2m teu, with some terminals reporting all-time monthly highs.

PSA Mumbai (BMCT) at Nhava Sheva solidified its market share, breaking a throughput milestone of 200,000 teu in a month.

“We are the second terminal in India to have achieved this feat, after the Adani CT3 (with MSC) at Mundra,” the Singapore-based terminal company said.

PSA sources also claimed container transhipments from MSC remained a volume-booster for the Adani terminal, unlike Nhava Sheva terminals that thrive solely on export/import gateway cargo.

By way of comparison, new data for August shows that Mundra handled 666,845 teu in the month, against 639,336 teu at Nhava Sheva.

At the same time, the recent elevated ocean freight rates, on top of lingering shipping disruption, had been a concern for Indian exporters, as national merchandise exports by value dipped 1% year on year in July, after a streak of respectable monthly gains, data shows.

“Some exporters have diverted to the domestic market as profitability in exports has taken a hit, with sharp increases in international freight rates, both ship and air,” said Ashwani Kumar, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations.

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The lead time for ordering newbuildings has become so long that container carriers are being forced into ordering "now" so that they can remain competitive into the future, according to one senior industry executive.

According to the industry source, yard space is being utilised by large orders for LNG gas carriers, which can take up to twice the amount of time in drydock as conventional vessels.

“Drydocks are the bottlenecks for shipyards, with most ships taking 50-60 days in the drydock phase before moving to the fitting out berth, but LNG carriers can use up to 100 days in the drydock phase,” said the executive.

Ships ordered today would not be delivered until 2029, which puts vessel operators in a catch-22 situation. They must order vessels or fall behind their competitors, but they must also decide which fuel to use. This is the dilemma facing shipowners, who must decide today what their strategy will be in five years’ time.

A senior executive of a major classification company said: “Many slots are being allocated to gas carriers, in a major order by Qatar, and these ships take twice as long in drydock than other ships.”

According to the source, even the opening of new yards will not relieve the pressure on shipyards because they do not have sufficient skilled labour to fill the positions.

“In Korea there are 6,000 vacancies for welders,” said the source. “And they are paying welders a lot more money now, not because they are making so much money, but because they must keep the staff. Some yards are even holding on to staff qualifications so that they cannot leave.”

Speaking off the record, the executive said that while conventional vessels spend around 50-60 days in drydock, the time scale for the construction of Q-Max and other LNG carriers fitted with complex containment systems is double the time for other vessels, which effectively halves the capacity for a drydock, for the period of gas carrier construction, effectively reducing yard capacity and adding to yard congestion and newbuilding backlogs.

Without wanting to name an operator, the source said that some liner operators had decided to aim for lower carbon fuels rather than operate on ‘transitional’ fuels such as LNG. However, they have had to change their strategy or risk falling behind their major competitors.

Early last month, Maersk announced it was putting its fleet renewal programme of 50-60 ships of 800,000 TEUs.

Maersk said, “The exact split of propulsion technologies will be determined considering the future regulatory framework and green fuels supply. Maersk has commenced the work of securing offtake agreements for liquified bio-methane (bio-LNG) to ensure that the new dual-fuel gas vessels provide greenhouse gas emissions reductions in this decade.”

The Danish ocean carrier had originally said it would prefer to move direct to low or zero carbon fuels, and had ruled out ordering LNG, dual fuel vessels.

A Maersk spokesman said that the company’s position remained the same, that LNG was not the answer to the decarbonisation issue.

“Our overall position on LNG has not changed: LNG is a fossil fuel; LNG is methane, which is a very potent greenhouse gas, particularly short-term. Fossil LNG can only contribute with modest (10-15%) GHG savings on a lifecycle basis when used as marine fuel in the engine types with the lowest methane slip, but it is not a solution to the problem. While we can consider LNG as an alternative to fossil bunker fuel, it is not an alternative to any green fuel,” commented the spokesman.

Nevertheless, Maersk also acknowledged that LNG is a “potent greenhouse gas”, but added: “We see promising developments for availability of liquified bio-methane (also known as bio-LNG), though its full scaling abilities are yet to be seen. By diversifying our fleet of dual-fuel vessels, we gain technical and commercial knowledge and experience across multiple future fuel pathways, and we strengthen the toolkit that will lead us towards our near-term 2030 SBTi-validate targets.”

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Shipping’s methanol “happy hour” has ended, with LNG back on the menu, decarbonisation “slowing” and freight rates set to double permanently, claimed classification giant DNV Maritime this week.

At the unveiling of the eighth edition of DNV’s Maritime Forecast yesterday, CEO Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen said shipping decarbonisation was slowing and 93% of the global fleet was still running on conventional fossil fuels.

“…if you look to what it costs these days to either build a new vessel with new fuel capabilities, or indeed if you want to retrofit vessels with new fuels, it is very costly,” he said, adding that yard space for retrofits or newbuilding was difficult to find and carried a high premium.

Hampered production hindered the development of green methanol supply chains, said DNV, Mr Ørbeck-Nilssen adding: “70% [of production facilities] have not made it into the final investment decision.”

In a veiled reference to Maersk and its u-turn on methanol, he said the “happy hour” for the emergent fuel was over, and “…some very significant drivers for methanol in the maritime industry seem to have pulled back…[which] will naturally influence how others might see it.”

Onboard carbon capture instead seems to be DNV’s focus, with various systems available on the market able to reduce ship funnel CO2 emissions by 20% or more, provided a portion of additional fuel is burned to support this energy cost.

Contingent on the provision of carbon “reception facilities” made available in ports, Mr Ørbeck-Nilssen said: “The study shows that onboard carbon capture and storage will have a significant effect to decarbonise shipping. In all scenarios, that it is important and it will also alleviate the pressure on the lack of carbon neutral fuels that we have seen.”

Meanwhile, DNV expects shipping decarbonisation to double freight costs, with various scenarios projecting between a 91% and a 112% bump to freight rates on a permanent basis.

“This is a significant increase in the cost of shipping… [which] cannot be absorbed by the shipowner or the operator,” said Mr Ørbeck-Nilssen. “It has to result in increased freight rates.” And he added this “will have some bearing on our personal lives as well”.

DNV’s Eirik Ovrum, maritime principal consultant and maritime forecast lead author, said: “Ultimately, the increased costs… will have to be moved through the value chain to the consumer as an increase in the price of goods… there are already movements in the market to do this.”

However, the doubling of freight rates would seem like a pleasant reprieve compared with what forwarders and their customers have dealt with in recent months and years. Yesterday’s Drewry World Container Index (WCI) composite index was sitting at $5,181 per 40ft, a 265% increase on the average 2019 rate of $1,420. (The WCI climbed to $10,377 at the height of the pandemic disruptions, a 630% increase).

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Port congestion should ease as new vessel capacity comes in and Red Sea diversions become the norm – but “there will always be something” disrupting the market, warned Drewry’s Ports & Terminal Insight editor, Eleanor Hadland. 

In Drewry’s monthly report, the maritime consultancy identified a sharp increase in congestion as a result of the Red Sea diversions, and Ms Hadland noted: “A lot of the congestion has been related to transhipment cargo. 

“If I was a shipper, I’d be looking for a direct service – I would not be wanting a service that relied on transhipment,” she added. 

“Efficient terminal operations require a fixed weekly vessel schedule,” she explained. “And the Red Sea crisis has reduced carriers’ ability to operate weekly sailings… The congestion we’ve seen in response to the Red Sea crisis has worsened due to blank sailings.

“Unlike Covid when the disruption impacted production and distribution, what we are seeing is normal flows of cargo to/from ports via road, rail and feeder. However, with high numbers of blank sailings it doesn’t take long for a backlog of cargo to build up in the yard.”  

“Once the terminal yards get congested, you start to enter a vicious cycle where the congestion reduces productivity, which leads to further vessel delays. The situation is often magnified at transhipment terminals, due to rapid build-up of cargo when connections between mainline and feeder services are missed.” 

"But Ms Hadland suggested the number of new vessels being delivered this year and next would provide ‘light at the end of the tunnel’. She said: “Once these vessels are deployed then the gaps in the mainline schedules caused by the longer Cape of Good Hope route will reduce, dwell times will start coming down towards normal levels and yard congestion will fall.” 

“What happens if the ILA negotiations don’t succeed and we see strike action at US east and Gulf coast ports? There’s also risk of similar dock strikes in Germany and rail strikes in Canada. Plus, climate change is increasingly impacting the sector with floods and severe weather events.”  

“There’s always going to be something,” she concluded.  

In July, Valenciaport handled 461,121 containers, marking a 5.64% increase compared to the same month last year.

The port processed 6.75 million tons of goods in terms of weight, reflecting a 1.22% increase from July 2023.

For the year-to-date period ending July 31, Valenciaport has managed 3,169,288 TEUs, a 12.74% rise over the same period last year, translating to 47.61 million tons, up by 6.10%.

In addition, the data over the past twelve months shows that the port has handled 79.48 million tons of cargo and 5,155,084 TEUs, representing year-over-year increases of 5.56% and 8.62%, respectively. This highlights Valenciaport’s role as a crucial hub for international trade.

The Statistical Bulletin from the Port Authority of Valencia (APV) reveals a mixed performance for July, with decreases in bulk traffic (-27.53%), empty containers (-5.78%), and exports (-5.81%). However, these declines were offset by gains in containerized general cargo (+9.10%), import containers (+7.24%), and transit containers (+18.65%).

Furthermore, from January 1 to July 31, the port handled 354,376 vehicles under the cargo regime, a 9.07% decrease compared to the first seven months of the previous year. Export data for the year show significant growth in iron and steel (+5.82%) and non-metallic minerals (+23.67%).

Conversely, declines were noted in chemical products (-1.77%), construction materials (-1.75%), and other goods (-12.42%), including wood and cork, paper and pulp, machinery, tools, and spare parts.