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Ocean carriers are giving back their recent Asia-North Europe FAK rate increases via heavy discounts for October shipments from China.
Indeed, shippers are receiving rate offers from major carriers, valid until 15 October, from China to Antwerp, Rotterdam and Hamburg at less than $1,000 per 40ft – with rates for UK ports further discounted.
The container spot rate indices appear to be behind the curve on the rate erosion, albeit Xeneta’s XSI Asia-North Europe component slipped 7% this week, to an average of $1,585 per 40ft.
With a prediction that the rate increases on the tradelane would “relatively quickly run out of steam”, the August edition of MSI’s Horizon report cites the “gargantuan supply influx” of newbuild ultra-large container vessels being phased into service loops as the principal cause.
“A combination of dramatically increased scrapping, blank sailings and possibly idling of vessels will be necessary for carriers to keep rates at a sustainable level in the coming two to three quarters, since cargo volumes will be lower,” says the report.
Meanwhile, MSC’s much-blanked standalone Swan loop will finally get going, with a departure from China on 5 September that will now include a call at Felixstowe, as well as Bremerhaven and the Polish ports of Gdansk and Gdynia, “providing a fast, direct route between Yantian and the UK”, said MSC.
The more robust Asia-Mediterranean tradelane was reported to be stable this week, despite significant capacity upgrades by carriers. For example, Drewry’s WCI spot reading edged up 1%, to $2,086 per 40ft.
On the transpacific, carriers are more optimistic that they can hold on to their rate increase gains, and are said to be preparing a fresh wave of GRIs for mid-September – and they appear to be more disciplined in terms of capacity management.
For example, Maersk and MSC have announced they will blank their TP1/Maple loop in week 37 – “in line with lower demand” – with cargo being transferred to the 11,000 teu Gerda Maersk, scheduled to depart China on 18 September.
Meanwhile, spot rates from Asia to the US west coast are holding firm, for now, with the XSI component actually putting on 3% this week, to $2,149 per 40ft.
On the Atlantic coast, spot rates continued to tick up due to the Panama Canal draught restrictions. Maersk said it had deployed additional vessels on the route to mitigate the impact.
“Besides adding extra loaders, we work closely with the canal to ensure we have access to the needed transit slots,” said Maersk.
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ASEAN-China trade has grown rapidly in recent years, highlighting the important role of logistics in facilitating trade. Road transport has become one of the fastest growing modes of transport in the ASEAN freight market, with countries such as Thailand and Vietnam looking to further invest in infrastructure to develop their cross-border trade with China.
In 1991, China and ASEAN officially launched a dialogue process. Over the past 30 years, China-ASEAN relations have grown significantly, with bilateral trade growing from less than US$8 billion in 1991 to US$975.34 billion in 2022, just one step away from US$1 trillion. China and ASEAN have been each other’s largest trading partners for three consecutive years.
In the first seven months of this year, total imports and exports between China and ASEAN reached 3.59 trillion yuan, up 2.8 per cent year-on-year, accounting for 15.3 per cent of China’s total trade.
On the other hand, from the perspective of the international environment, the “China+1” supply chain strategy adopted by European and American companies is accelerating the creation of industrial value chains in Southeast Asia. European and American companies are setting up factories in Southeast Asia, and Chinese companies are also accelerating their layout in Southeast Asia, on the one hand, to strive for better conditions and serve the local market, and on the other hand, to reasonably avoid potential geopolitical and sanctions risks.
Such changes in industrial layout will also lead to further flows of raw materials and products between the Chinese and Southeast Asian markets.
Geodis expects the size of Asia Pacific’s expanding logistics industry to reach US$4.5 trillion by 2029, with a projected growth of 5.24 per cent from 2023 to 2029.
“ASEAN and China are two of the fastest growing economies in the world. As the region remains poised for growth, GEODIS sees the extension of our Road Network to China as an opportunity to enhance our multimodal solutions and connectivity across major air hubs and seaports to give customers greater flexibility and reliability. We have made significant investments to our security, infrastructure and capabilities to ensure a safe and efficient flow of goods for our customers. Ultimately, we want to provide them with a competitive advantage to grow their business,” said Onno Boots, Regional President and CEO of GEODIS Asia Pacific and Middle East.
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KTZ’s container transportation via its subsidiary KTZ Express has increased by 2,6 times year-on-year for the first half of 2023. The overall transportation amounted to 346.000 TEU. Cargo flows linked to China have contributed much to the growth.
According to KTZ, the growing volume is the result of three major transit routes development, namely China-Russia-China, China-Central Asia-China, and China-Belarus-China. Currently, only the Belarus route could link the EU countries directly, though this direct EU connection is rather insignificant.
This is not the case for the other two routes. China-Russia volumes are still growing; however, a possible downturn is on the horizon in the coming season. The China-Central Asia volumes, on the other hand, are showcasing the promising potential of the Middle Corridor with quite a few developments from Kazakhstan’s side.
Kazakhstan in Middle Corridor
On the west side of the Middle Corridor, Kazakhstan has formed a joint venture with Georgia to construct a new multimodal terminal in the port of Poti. The terminal could create a yearly potential maximum capacity of 450,000 TEU. On the side of the Caspian Sea, AD Ports Group from UAE has recently shown their interest in building a grain terminal at Kuryk Port with Kazakhstan infrastructure investment company, Semurg. Further to the east, KTZ is currently constructing its first terminal in Xi’an, China. The terminal is designed to serve mostly for product exporting from Kazakhstan to China. None of them has been finalised, but they could make this the Middle Corridor blueprint a bit more promising.
