Container spot and short-term freight rates from China remain under pressure after the Golden Week holiday, as sluggish demand obliges ocean carriers to take out more capacity.
Reports suggest vessel utilisation on sailings from Asia to North Europe this week was much worse than expected, with talk of load factors “below 70%” on some voyages.
Spot rates for North Europe, as recorded by Drewry’s WCI index, fell another 3% this week, to $4,595/40ft, and have lost half of their value since the summer.
The disappointing utilisation and mid-term bearish outlook for the market has pushed carriers into temporary capacity adjustments on the tradelane, over and above their blanking programmes.
Maersk announced on Monday it was “looking to balance the network” by removing capacity, starting with axing the 26 October sailing from Ningbo of the 16,652 teu MSC Hamburg on the 2M’s AE1/Shogun loop.
And the carrier said it wanted to “make sure customer impact was minimised” by “rebooking cargo to the remaining network in advance”.
price from china to europe or US will continue decrease until the price like covide before.LOL i think around 1500USD to LA is the end.
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Accelerating freight rate erosion across the major shipping tradelanes is causing analysts to revise predictions of a ‘normalisation’ of the container market.
According to a new HSBC research paper, at the current speed of spot rate erosion, market rates could fall to 2019 levels as early as the end of this year –previous expectations were for mid-2023.
The paper’s authors note that the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), which tracks headhaul spot rates from China, has fallen by 51% since July, representing an average 7.5% weekly decline which, if continued, would crash the index back to pre-pandemic levels.
“We argue that weaker-than-expected demand, faster easing of congestion and price competition to get marginal cargo led to this decline,” said the bank’s analysts.
Based on this backdrop, HSBC’s shipping, ports and Asia transport research team is advancing its “trough scenario”, the bottoming-out point for the industry, to mid-2023, versus the previous estimate of 2024.
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