Container freight spot rates maintained their downward trajectory this week, as tariff uncertainty continued to plague the transpacific market and demand elsewhere failed to match supply.

However, the rising number of blanked sailings appears to have at least limited the weekly losses to single-digit declines.

Liner analyst John McCown noted in his monthly analysis this week that “the very early signs point to the industry having already blanked 81 sailings for April in the transpacific tradelane, well above the 51 sailings blanked during the monthly height of the pandemic”.

This week’s World Container Index (WCI) from Drewry saw its Shanghai-Los Anglese leg shed 2%, to finish the week at $2,617 per 40ft, while the Shanghai-New York routes lost 3%, to end at $3,611 per 40ft.

On both trades, spot rates have now fallen for two consecutive weeks, after a fortnight of rising pricing at the beginning of April, which suggested that turn-of-the-month general rate increases (GRIs) had stuck.

However, it also transpires that transpacific eastbound volumes were strong in March, with inbound shipments at the 10 largest US container ports up 11.2% year on year, according to data published by Mr McCown.

But he warned that the twin threats of trade tariffs and the US Trade Representative’s proposed port call fees on Chinese-built ships and Chinese carriers could send this growth into reverse.

“Growth in 2025 will be well off the 2024 pace. In fact, if the tariffs and USTR ship fees in place now continue, my view is that it is almost certain there will be a double-digit percent reduction in annual volume for all of 2025, compared with 2024,” he said.

On the Asia-Europe trades, the WCI showed a 1% week-on-week decline on its Shanghai-Rotterdam leg, to finish the week at $2,312 per 40ft, while its Shanghai-Genoa leg was unchanged, at $3,012 per 40ft.

Looking ahead, today’s Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI), which records rates quoted this week and often gives an indication of pricing the following week, shows spot rates on transpacific routes to the US west and east coast remaining flat, while Asia-Europe trades could see further slight declines.

The SCFI’s Shanghai-North Europe base port leg this week declined 4% week on week, to finish today at $2,520 per 40ft, while the Shanghai-Mediterranean base port route was down 1.5%, to $4,258 per 40ft.

Meanwhile, transatlantic spot rates continued to hold steady, as they have for the best part of a month, with the WCI’s Rotterdam-New York leg seeing a 1% decline, to $2,109 per 40ft, while the backhaul route was up 1%, to $825 per 40ft.

The relative strength of the trade has seen carriers announce the introduction of peak season surcharges (PSS) next month, possibly in anticipation of tariff-related front-loading.

Hapag-Lloyd today said it would apply a PSS of $600 per teu and $900 per 40ft on shipments to Mexico and Canada from 15 May, and on shipments to the US from 25 May.

Similarly, CMA CGM is set to introduce a PSS of $400 per teu and $800 per 40ft on all North Europe to North America shipments from 15 May.

Whether any of these price increases stick will be a good indication of how demand holds up over the next four weeks.

Forwarders are warning shippers not to under-declare the value of goods they export to the US as they look to mitigate the cost of tariffs.

Lee Griffiths, MD of NNR, said all employees were told to “completely avoid any breach of the law – follow culture before profit”, stressing that any such requests made to the company would be “met with a flat ‘no’”.

He added that NNR, “luckily, has several experts” on both tariffs and customs. They had been busy recently, with NNR’s US division running regular webinars that attracted strong participation, with 200 customers having signed in for the latest live chat.

Director of customs and trade services at DSV Pete Mento urged cargo owners to make customs compliance “the foundation of all your decisions”.

Since the onset of the tariff war, he said, he had received multiple suggestions on how to bypass additional import costs, including having suppliers “invoice for half what we intended to pay, but actually pay them what we agreed, after the import”.

Mr Mento wrote on LinkedIn: “Please don’t make foolish changes to avoid tariffs. CBP will catch you. They just will. And when they do, the impact will be nothing short of brutal. Talk to your broker, make compliance the foundation of all your decisions.

“Lastly, advise your suppliers and leadership that tough times won’t last for ever, and that they don’t give you licence to make bad decisions.”

Despite warnings against under-declaration, numbers provided by customs consultant Tom Gould suggest there is a rise in the practice: in January, 30 audits by CBP identified an additional $71m in duty due on imports, this dropped to $2.9m in February.

Alessio Bruni, a co-founder of Heroes, an advisory for SME e-commerce firms, gave an indication of the scale of the problem, claiming that one forwarder had offered to under-report the value of a shipment by 86%.

He said: “These numbers are mind-blowing. These freight forwarders would bring in products into the country and under-report the true value of the goods by 86%. It’s the equivalent of carrying two large suitcases full of contraband and going through the green ‘Nothing to Declare’ gate at the airport.

“If you get busted, you are screwed. Too many sellers seem to think this is a no-brainer.”

Mr Bruni warned that, with fines being two to three times the true value of the goods, the company could end up paying $750,000.

Hapag-Lloyd will apply a General Rate Increase (GRI) / General Rate Adjustment (GRA) from the Indian Subcontinent and the Middle East to North America for cargo transported in 20' and 40' dry, reefer and special containers, including high cube equipment.

This GRI/ GRA adjustment will be implemented for all containers gated in full from 20 May and will be valid until further notice.

The GRI amount has been set at US$1,000 per container

The Indian Subcontinent & Middle East area covers India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Trag, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, while North America includes the United States and Canada.

US exporters could face demurrage, detention, destruction of cargo, or return costs, after reports suggest some Chinese importers have stopped accepting cargo.  

Pat Fosberry, director of export compliance at US forwarder John S James Co, told that while the focus in the US had been on the effect of tariffs on importers, now “US exporters are beginning to feel consequences”.  

“Some of our US exporters are reporting that many buyers in China are cancelling orders, stating that China’s import tariffs will escalate the landed costs to be unviable,” Mr Fosberry explained. 

Sara Dandan, founder of D&D and maritime dispute company FourOneOne, explained: “The prevalent thinking for US importers was going to be to hold containers at in-bond warehouses in the US after they came in, and then re-export them back to China, to avoid customs fees and duties, and to avoid demurrage and detention fees.  

“To me, this seems like the Chinese are heading that off so they themselves don’t get stuck with shiploads of product – and also as a response to rising [US] tariffs.” 

And Mr Fosberry said: “It is uncertain how ocean carriers will handle the increase of containers sitting at the ports if cargo is not collected. Will they assign all the liability and costs to the US exporter if containers are not claimed and entered?  

“Demurrage, detention, destruction of cargo, return to the US and US domestic costs are all possible for the US exporter.” 

Ms Dandan told that, because of Federal Maritime Commission rules, even though the containers would be at a foreign port, it was probable that “they would follow the guidelines of just billing the consignee on the bill of lading, to make their lives easier”. 

When asked if it was likely carriers would waive D&D charges during all the uncertainty, she laughed. 

But he added that the main concern for US exporters was that “some China buyers have told them they will not be accepting shipments upon arrival”.   

But advised: “If you haven’t sent anything yet, I guess the best way to mitigate it is to not send anything, if there are claims that they will refuse cargo and turn it away. Otherwise, I think we will see a lot of abandoned cargo. What else are they supposed to do?” 

And she added: “That seems to be speculation for now though. They could re-export it back into the US or see if they can export it elsewhere. I suppose it depends on their business model, etc. 

“I highly suspect we’re going to see a lot of companies buying out of countries other than China, and I can all but guarantee that if you looked hard enough, there’d be a Chinese buyer and company there. I am seeing a lot of talk about that on the import and the export side,” said Ms Dandan.  

“As for how comfortable companies feel doing that, since laws and regulations vary according to country, I will leave up to them,” she concluded.  

A recent breakthrough in the decades-long tariff dispute over DP World’s terminal operations at the Indian port of Nhava Sheva (JNPA) seems to have set off a reconfiguration of ocean carriers’ berthing windows in the harbour.

The stalemate had been a barrier to DP World Nhava Sheva optimising quayside capacity at the port, which handles a significant portion of India’s containerised export/import volumes.

With a settlement, the private concessionaire, the oldest at Nhava Sheva, has begun targeting more liner customers – and a terminal switch announced by the intra-Asia consortium, led by Taiwanese carrier Wan Hai Lines, is proof of that push.

The South East Asia-India (SI8) service has terminated its fixed-day berthing slot deal with PSA International-operated Bharat Mumbai Container Terminals (BMCT) to move weekly calls to DP World’s Nhava Sheva India Gateway Terminal (NSIGT), “with immediate effect”, Wan Hai Lines India told customers.

The SI8 deploys four 3,000 teu ships, two from Wan Hai and one each from Korea Marine Transport Co (KMTC) and Interasia Lines, on a weekly rotation of Jakarta-Surabaya-Singapore-Port Klang-Mundra-Nhava Sheva-Port Klang-Jakarta.

The joint loop was launched in April 2024 to tap into the trade growth linked to diversifying Asian supply chains.

DP World has two marine facilities in Nhava Sheva, offering a combined capacity of a little over 2m teu annually: NSICT began operations in 1997, equipped with a 600-metre quay and 1.2m teu capacity; NSIGT went live in 2015.

The tariff settlement involving NSICT operations was a win-win outcome for both sides, as the port authority also needed terminal scalability to handle growing volumes and fend off any further loss of cargo to rival ports run by Adani Group due to space constraints.

“This settlement provides substantial benefits to the port, resolves a long-standing dispute, and sends a positive signal regarding the robustness and success of the PPP [public-private-partnership] model in India,” JNPA said.

“This is expected to significantly boost traffic at JNPA, generating higher revenues to the port from vessel-related charges, berth hire and royalties.”

At the centre of the dispute was a flawed government policy for terminal concessions, awarded in India’s nascent port privatisation era in the 1990s. As a result, older terminals were forced to scale back capacity within their committed throughput levels instead of maximising utilisation through efficiency.

Meanwhile, PSA has now begun handling vessels on BMCT’s extended Phase 2 wharf at Nhava Sheva, on a limited scale, adding 2.4m teu capacity for its operations once the entire 1,000-metre berth space is ready in the coming months.

That capacity consolidation could heat up competition among Nhava Sheva’s terminals as they woo carriers in a bid to retain and boost market share, industry sources believe.

JNPA saw fiscal year 2024-25 volumes climb 14% year on year, to 7.3m teu, an all-time high. Of this, DP World contributed 2.3m teu, but it could build on that with is now greater operational flexibility.

However, its hinterland connections remain an issue, as they have for other terminals in the port.

Over the past week, DP World Nhava Sheva had to face trucker pushback over long gate delays that vehicle owners claimed caused serious productivity setbacks and supply chain risks for cargo owners.

The terminal responded by promising “proactive efforts to keep the road queue under control”.

In 2024, Iranian ports processed a total of 2.96 million TEUs, marking a 13% increase compared to the previous year.

The nation's primary port, Shahid Rajaee in Bandar Abbas, saw a 12% container traffic growth, reaching 2.39 million TEUs. Meanwhile, Shahid Bohonar-Bandar Abbas' secondary port-doubled its throughput from the previous year.

Meanwhile, the Indian-supported port of Chabahar also recorded substantial growth, with throughput surging 83% to 90,800 TEUS.

Asian exporters that withheld shipments due to US import tariffs were quick to backtrack today, after US president Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on the “Liberation Day” tariffs for all affected countries except China, which has been slapped with cumulative tariffs of 125%.

Forwarder contacts in the region told that shippers had been asking about booking container space before more changes in the US tariff policy. The pause means tariffs on imports from many countries are now at a baseline 10%.

South Korean forwarder LX Pantos told: “There is still some uncertainty in the market, because customers don’t know if Trump will change his mind again, but now that the tariffs are temporarily held off, we’ve been getting some calls from customers to resume shipments.”

South Korean exports were to be tariffed at 25% yesterday, and caretaker president Han Duck Soo said he would not retaliate, opting to engage Mr Trump in dialogue.

While the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements prompted some major shippers – notably Jaguar Land Rover in the UK – to put an immediate halt on US-bound shipments, many small- and medium-sized shippers had adopted a ‘wait and see’ approach, said forwarder Zencargo’s VP of growth and expansion, Michael Starr.

“A lot of our customers have been sitting tight and looking to store cargo in bonded warehouses or at origin until things have played out a bit,” he explained.

“There’s no doubt there’s a consumer confidence crisis in the US, and we expect to see a downturn in quarters three and four this year,” he added.

A source at Taiwanese forwarder Jumping Freight, whose customers are mainly computer hardware manufacturers, told that response to the moratorium on tariffs had been mixed.

“Our clients are still not making any shipments from their Chinese factories, because they are facing much higher tariffs now,” they said. “In fact, they have started operating their factories on shorter hours.

“Customers with local production are, however, asking us about booking freight, since the tariff is back at 10% for now,” they added.

Ye Zi Jing, deputy GM at Taiwanese forwarder Soonest Express, was quoted in local media as saying that customers that cancelled shipments this month began enquiring today about restarting exports.

“They told us not to give up and continue to find bonded warehouses,” she said. “They don’t know if the tariff policy could change tomorrow or later, but some manufacturers want to ensure they have sufficient inventory, so they’re moving first since the additional tariffs are stayed for now.”

However, Mr Starr also said warehouse capacity in China and elsewhere in Asia was limited.

“There’s not a whole bunch of container freight stations in China sitting empty, and the market won’t be able to store everything indefinitely – much will depend on what people are willing to pay to avoid the extra charges,” he said.

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